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14 Mar 2023

USD/JPY rebounds from 133.04 ahead of Tuesday’s US CPI and BoJ’s minutes

  • USD/JPY trades at 134.12, up 0.70% from the previous close price.
  • Markets digest the effects of the SVB collapse amid mixed concerns about the Fed's actions.
  • The US two-year Treasury bond yields show the most significant daily decrease since October 1987.
  • Market sentiment remains mixed, with investors watching upcoming US CPI and Retail Sales data.

Daily price movements:

USD/JPY opens the day at 133.17 and trades at 134.12 at the press time, with the intraday price range being 134.35 to 133.04. The currency pair has rebounded today, showing a considerable increase of 0.70% from the previous close price. The market sentiment remains mixed as investors are cautiously watching the price movements of USD/JPY ahead of the US inflation data.

The US 10-year Treasury bond yields fluctuate at approximately 3.60%, rebounding from the monthly low of 3.418% on the day. In comparison, the two-year Treasury bond yields have moderately increased to approximately 4.22% after experiencing a decline to levels not seen since September 2022.

It is worth mentioning that the two-year Treasury bond yields had their most significant drop since 1987 on Monday. However, the latest yield increase could indicate a trend reversal before crucial US data release.

It is worth noting that traders experienced a significant increase in bond purchasing the previous day following the fallouts of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank. US banking regulators took joint action to mitigate the risks arising from SVB and Signature Bank during the weekend. 

On Monday, US President Joe Biden announced that investors in those banks would not receive protection and emphasized that "no one is above the law."

Nevertheless, the US President also promised to take necessary measures to ensure the safety of the US banking system, according to Reuters.

Key economic events:

Tuesday’s US February Consumer Price Index (CPI) (12:30 GMT) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (23:50 GMT) will be closely monitored. 

Also, US February Retail Sales on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT are critical data to monitor closely. 

Side note: Due to the unfortunate collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the markets are now expecting a more accommodating approach from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Technical view:

According to the daily chart, USD/JPY is trading below its daily 20-SMA of 135.30, indicating a short-term bearish trend. However, it is still above its daily 50-SMA of 132.46, suggesting a longer-term bullish bias.

RSI(14) is currently at 48.031, indicating a neutral stance. The daily pivot point is at 133.51, with daily resistance levels at 134.74, 136.28, and 137.50 and daily support levels at 131.97, 130.75, and 129.21. Traders are advised to monitor price movements due to upcoming US CPI and Retail Sales data on Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

 

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