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1 Nov 2023

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Hovers above the 1.0550 key level ahead of Fed decision

  • EUR/USD could revisit the previous week's low at 1.0521 due to facing pressure.
  • Any dovish remarks post-Fed decision could uplift the pair toward a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0648.
  • RSI indicates a bias towards a weaker market sentiment.

EUR/USD consolidates ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy decision with the expectation of maintaining the current interest rate at 5.5% in November’s meeting. The pair trades lower near 1.0570 during the Asian session on Wednesday.

The Eurozone Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) exhibited a significant slowdown in a report released on Tuesday, dropping from an annual pace of 4.3% to 2.9% in October. This notable deceleration in consumer prices aligns with market expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to pursue further interest rate hikes. Additionally, the looming risks of a recession may persist in undermining the EUR/USD pair.

The EUR/USD pair could find support around the psychological level of 1.0550, followed by the previous week's low at 1.0521. If the pair convincingly breaches the latter, it could pave the way for further downside movement towards the critical level around 1.0500.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line positions below the centerline but above the signal line implying a potential shift in momentum. This nuanced market sentiment suggests a mix of factors indicating a potential change in the prevailing trend.

Investors will closely watch the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) post-meeting communication to gauge the potential path of interest rates. Any dovish remarks could turn the pair to the upside toward the key barrier around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0648. The further obstacles are presented by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0650.

A successful breach above the mentioned resistance levels could potentially invigorate the EUR/USD pair to revisit October's high at the 1.0694 level.

However, the EUR/USD pair seems to be facing restrained momentum as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) lies below the 50 level, suggesting bearish momentum and reflecting a bias towards a weaker market sentiment.

EUR/USD: Daily Chart

 

Nov 1, 2023

Gold price extends its pullback from a multi-month top; focus remains on FOMC

Gold price (XAU/USD) extends the previous day's retracement slide from the vicinity of a five-and-half-month top touched last week and continues drifting lower during the Asian session on Wednesday.
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Nov 1, 2023

Indonesia Inflation (MoM) registered at 0.17%, below expectations (0.24%) in October

Indonesia Inflation (MoM) registered at 0.17%, below expectations (0.24%) in October
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