EUR/SEK: Cyclical backdrop remains a challenge for the Krona – Danske Bank

Economists at Danske Bank remain medium-term bearish on the Swedish Krona (SEK).

Tactical downside vs. strategic upside

While we have remained strategically bullish on EUR/SEK, our tactical view has shifted over the year with e.g. near-term bullish view on SEK this autumn.

The SEK rebound could run a bit further with positive risk sentiment and broad-based USD weakness as the Fed is set to move slightly earlier than peers. However, the cyclical backdrop remains a challenge for the SEK amid a bleak global growth outlook, a Swedish economy characterized by vulnerable households, a Riksbank that will not lag the ECB in the easing cycle and a choppy environment for global equities. 

The structural flows picture is still a medium-term headwind for the SEK. Should the global economy pick up more than expected in 2024, this could lend support to the SEK over the medium-term. 

On balance, we lower the forecast trajectory slightly over all horizons.

EUR/SEK Forecast: 11.20 (1M), 11.40 (3M), 11.60 (6M), 11.60 (12M)