Aussie likely to be in a wait-and-see mode – Commerzbank

Economists at Commerzbank analyze AUD outlook after downbeat Australian employment data.

Increasing risk that the RBA will start cutting rates sooner rather than later

Australian employment figures were much worse than expected. With job losses of around 65 thousand, the report was the worst since the peak of the coronavirus pandemic. However, there are also some less negative signals. The unemployment rate has remained constant, thanks to the sharp drop in the participation rate.

The latest figures certainly increase the risk that the RBA will start cutting rates sooner rather than later. 

However, the quarterly inflation figures that we will receive in less than two weeks are likely to be decisive. Until then, the Aussie is likely to be in a wait-and-see mode.