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11 Dec 2024

EUR: Downside risks for EUR/USD – ING

The European data calendar is quiet this week, and investors await the main event of the week – Thursday’s ECB decision. This month EUR/USD is staying offered despite a strong seasonal bullish tendency, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

January and February may become bearish for EUR/USD

“Market pricing has settled on a 25bp ECB rate cut – with which we agree – although a dovish press conference from President Lagarde could keep the euro offered. Certainly, rate differentials remain very wide in favour of the dollar, although it will probably now require a hawkish repricing of the Fed curve to drive this differential wider from current levels.”

“For EUR/USD today, the focus will largely be on the US CPI reading and perhaps, too, on the Bank of Canada decision. Technical indicators suggest EUR/USD is now ready to restart its bear trend should macro and geopolitical inputs allow. For that reason, we have a preference that 1.0550/70 may be the best EUR/USD level of the day and look for catalysts to take it down to the 1.0450 area.” 

“This month EUR/USD is staying offered despite a strong seasonal bullish tendency. Typically January and February prove bearish months for EUR/USD. We suspect corporate America would be very grateful for any EUR/USD bounce into which they would offload the euro.”

Dec 11, 2024

AUD/USD seems vulnerable near YTD low, around mid-0.6300s ahead of US CPI

The AUD/USD pair remains under some selling pressure for the second straight day on Wednesday and drops to the 0.6340 area, or the lowest level since November 2023 during the first half of the European session.
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Dec 11, 2024

NZD/USD: A chance of declining further – UOB Group

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could decline further but may not be able to break clearly below the major support at 0.5770.
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