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7 Feb 2025

USD/CAD to trend higher on the current situation – BBH

USD/CAD is stabilizing around key technical support at 1.4300, BBH FX analysts note.

Trade conflict can badly hurt economic activity in Canada

“Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Tiff Macklem reiterated overnight that a long-lasting and broad-based trade conflict would badly hurt economic activity in Canada and put direct upward pressure on inflation. This complicates the BOC’s job as monetary policy cannot lean against weaker output and higher inflation at the same time.” 

“Canada’s January labor force survey is the domestic focus (1:30pm London). Consensus sees a 25k rise in jobs vs. 91k in December, while the unemployment rate is expected at 6.8% vs. 6.7% in December. Overall, the labor market remains soft and firms’ hiring intentions are muted.”

“Interest rate futures imply almost 75bps of BOC cuts over the next 12 months that should see the policy rate bottom at the lower end of the BOC’s neutral range estimate of 2.25% to 3.25%. Bottom line: FED/BOC policy trend, risk of all-out trade war between Canada and the US, and the Trump administration’s focus on lowering energy prices support a higher USD/CAD.” 

Feb 7, 2025

CZK: Hawkish cut but with more on the table – ING

Yesterday's Czech National Bank meeting brought several surprises. Ahead of the meeting, data showed that inflation slowed less than expected, dropping to 2.8% year-on-year from 3.0% in December, mainly due to food prices, ING’s FX analysts Frantisek Taborsky notes.
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Feb 7, 2025

AUD/USD: Sustained break above 0.6310 is unlikely – UOB Group

AUD is facing mild upward pressure; it could test 0.6310, but a sustained break above this level is unlikely. If AUD closes above 0.6310, it could trigger an advance to 0.6355, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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