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29 Apr 2013
Forex: AUD/USD strong just below 1.0350
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The AUD/USD is trading strong today. The cross rose from 1.0280 area, breached above the 1.0300 mark and climbed all the way throughout the Asian and European sessions. The market trades at its highs, +0.60% on the day, despite the growing concerns ahead of the Australian Budget, brought down in May 14.
In October, the Treasury was pointing to a surplus of+ $A1b or +0.1% of GDP for this year 2012/13, but estimates are creeping up to -$A25b, or –1.7% of GDP, or higher, with a projection a substantial $A12b shortfall in revenues compared with October. “With debt rising to $A300b or only 20% of GDP it shouldn’t rattle Australia's AAA status, however, but a medium-term return to surplus (a la Canada) is required to keep Australia off the credit ratings radar”, wrote TD Securities analyst Annette Beacher.
For today, the economic calendar will publish the US income and spending report for March, but it should be largely ignored, “as the data would have already been incorporated into Friday’s Q1 GDP report”, Beacher wrote, adding that for the March pending home sales, markets are looking for a 1% rebound after some softer housing data recently.
“Fresh strength that surged through 1.0300 barrier overnight and approach of 1.0335/38 double-top, sees scope for extension of near-term recovery rally from 1.0220 low, with clear break above 1.0338 required to confirm and open immediate targets at 1.0357, 19 Apr high / Fib 38.2% of 1.0581/1.0220 fall and 1.0400, 14 Apr high / 50% retracement”, wrote Windsor Brokers analyst Slobodan Drvenica, pointing to positive hourly structure, while 4h indicators are breaking above their midlines.
In October, the Treasury was pointing to a surplus of+ $A1b or +0.1% of GDP for this year 2012/13, but estimates are creeping up to -$A25b, or –1.7% of GDP, or higher, with a projection a substantial $A12b shortfall in revenues compared with October. “With debt rising to $A300b or only 20% of GDP it shouldn’t rattle Australia's AAA status, however, but a medium-term return to surplus (a la Canada) is required to keep Australia off the credit ratings radar”, wrote TD Securities analyst Annette Beacher.
For today, the economic calendar will publish the US income and spending report for March, but it should be largely ignored, “as the data would have already been incorporated into Friday’s Q1 GDP report”, Beacher wrote, adding that for the March pending home sales, markets are looking for a 1% rebound after some softer housing data recently.
“Fresh strength that surged through 1.0300 barrier overnight and approach of 1.0335/38 double-top, sees scope for extension of near-term recovery rally from 1.0220 low, with clear break above 1.0338 required to confirm and open immediate targets at 1.0357, 19 Apr high / Fib 38.2% of 1.0581/1.0220 fall and 1.0400, 14 Apr high / 50% retracement”, wrote Windsor Brokers analyst Slobodan Drvenica, pointing to positive hourly structure, while 4h indicators are breaking above their midlines.