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2 May 2013

Forex Flash: What’s the outlook for the GBP/USD? – RBS. UBS and Commerzbank

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - After hitting fresh multi-week highs in the vicinity of 1.5610 on Wednesday, the sterling is now trading back to the 1.5560/65 region. Better-than-expected readings from the manufacturing PMI bolstered the up-move, albeit losing momentum afterwards.

“With the global grab for yield ongoing in light of the Fed and BoJ policy actions, asset markets remain buoyant and hence can provide some further support for GBP/USD. However we remain sceptical how far GBP/USD can push higher given the weak UK fundamental backdrop”, assessed Melinda Burguess, FX Strategist at RBS.

On the bullish side, Syed M.Mohi-uddin a UBS commented, “The pair posts new recovery high and tested the critical resistance at 1.5606, a closing break above this would open 1.5689. Support is at 1.5468”.

In the meantime, the long-term target for Commerzbank remains at 1.4853 ahead of 1.4229, although in the wake of yesterday’s bull run above 1.5600 Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at the German lender suggested, “We favour failure here. However the intraday charts are giving conflicting signals and above 1.5603 we would allow for one more push higher to 1.5761/82 (200 day ma and 61.8% retracement, where we would expect to see failure)”.
May 2, 2013

Forex: EUR/USD quiet after testing 1.3150 for support

After yesterday’s high at 1.3242, the EUR/USD became heavier and has been under profit taking process since then. It eventually lost the 1.3200 handle to move sideways at 1.3180 overnight, but today’s European morning sent the pair further down to test 1.3150 on the release of manufacturing PMIs in the euro area, which has held as support.
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May 2, 2013

Forex Flash: OIS raises chances of RBA rate cut, but TD stays on hold – TD Securities

Due to Australia’s building approvals fall by –5.5% m/m in March, below consensus expectation for a +1.0% gain, the OIS markets priced in a greater-than-even chance of a rate cut next week, but TD Securities analysts believe are less concerned and stay “on hold” as “the series is very volatile and the 3m annualized rate remains at a decent 155k (from 158k), in line with our housing starts forecast for the full year”, wrote analyst Alvin Pontoh. Building approvals decline was led by a drop in lumpy apartment approvals (-8%), while house approvals continued to rise
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