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28 Nov 2022

USD/CHF aims to regain 0.9500 amid downbeat risk profile, Swiss GDP eyed

  • USD/CHF prints three-day uptrend as sour sentiment underpins US Dollar.
  • China-linked woes join pre-data anxiety to favor USD/CHF bulls.
  • Swiss Q3 GDP, Fed Chair Powell’s speech and US NFP are the key calendar events.
  • Headlines surrounding China are also important for clear directions.

USD/CHF retreats from intraday high but stays on the bull’s radar for the third consecutive day, near 0.9465 heading into Monday’s European session. In doing so, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair portrays the market’s risk-off mood ahead of the key data/events scheduled for publishing this week.

Although alleged defense from Chinese authorities to safeguard equities appeared to trigger the USD/CHF pair’s latest pullback, the broad risk-aversion wave, due to the Covid fears, seems to keep the pair buyers hopeful. That said, the record-high daily virus infections from China and the protests to ease the Zero-Covid policy seemed to challenge the market sentiment of late.

On the other hand, the cautious mood ahead of Switzerland’s third quarter (Q3) Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expected to grow by 1.0% YoY versus 2.8% prior growth, also seemed to have favored the USD/CHF bulls of late.

Elsewhere, hopes that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may sound hawkish during his firmer publish appearance since the November meeting, while also signaling the easy rate hikes, appear to have offered additional strength to the USD/CHF bulls.

Furthermore, a record high online shopping by US citizens on Black Friday favored the US Dollar to pare recent losses. “US shoppers spent a record $9.12 billion online this Black Friday, a report showed on Saturday, as consumers weathered the squeeze from high inflation and grabbed steep discounts on everything from Smartphones to toys,” mentioned Reuters.

Against this backdrop, US stock futures are down 0.70% intraday and the key Treasury bond yields also extend the latest south-run.

Given the recent risk-off mood, the USD/CHF may remain firmer unless the Swiss GDP offers a positive surprise.

Technical analysis

A clear upside break of the two-week-old descending trend line, around 0.9450 by the press time, keeps the USD/CHF bulls hopeful of visiting the 200-DMA hurdle of 0.9636.

 

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