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12 Mar 2023

EUR/USD gaps up as US Dollar gets shunned in the open

  • EUR/USD bulls in the market at the open.
  • EUR/USD jumps in a gap to start the week after NFP.

EUR/USD 1.0590 target in a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for the day ahead. On the other hand, a continuation towards 1.0770s could just as easily play out.

EUR/USD has opened with a large gap in the open and is trading around 1.0680 after closing on Friday at 1.0639 after a mixed Nonfarm Payrolls report triggered a sell-off in the US Dollar. 

However, as analysts at ANZ Bank said in a note before the open, ´´after so much anticipation it was ironic that it got lost in the noise, but non-farm payrolls rose 311k in February, indicating very strong momentum in jobs growth continues.´´

Additionally, the analysts explained that ´´the January data was barely revised, and the 3-month average of jobs growth is now 355k vs 321k in the prior three months. The unemployment rate edged higher to 3.6% as the participation rate rose 0.1% to 62.5%. Average hourly earnings slowed to 0.2% MoM (4.6% YoY). That will be of some comfort to the Fed, but the weaker monthly rise owed much to strong gains in low-paying jobs: leisure and hospitality and retail, suggesting firms expect discretionary consumer spending to remain strong,´´ they said.

Nevertheless, a significant repricing across the curve and in the terminal rate weighed on the US Dollar due to weaker-than-expected wages. The Fed funds rate implied upper bound fell from 5.89% to 5.5% and the probability of a 50bp hike in March declined substantially.

EUR/USD technical analysis

The price is reaching a liquidity area that could see the bears move in with eyes on a 1.0590 target in a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for the day ahead. On the other hand, a continuation towards 1.0770s could just as easily play out. 

Mar 12, 2023

AUD/USD Price Analysis: H1 M-formation holds the bears hostage for the open

As per the prior analysis and before the Nonfarm Payrolls event on Friday that sent the US Dollar substantially lower, AUD-USD remains in the realms o
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Mar 12, 2023

New Zealand Food Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (0.6%) in February: Actual (1.5%)

New Zealand Food Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (0.6%) in February: Actual (1.5%)
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