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30 May 2024

USD/JPY retreats on safe-haven demand as Dollar bulls take a breather

  • USD/JPY falls as safe-haven demand preferences the Japanese Yen and the US Dollar bulls take a breather. 
  • BoJ official Adachi suggests higher interest rates could support the historically weak Yen. 
  • Investors still foresee the BoJ raising rates despite uneven inflation data. 

USD/JPY slumps over half a percent to trade in the 156.70s on Thursday as the Japanese Yen gains on increased safe-haven demand amid a broad sell-off in risk assets whilst the US Dollar takes a breather from its rally on the previous day. 

Rising Japanese Government Bond yields (JGB) also support the Yen, with the benchmark 10-year JGB yield at 1.05%. US 10-year yields meanwhile have fallen to 4.59% after making gains on Wednesday, due mainly to the lack of demand in recent Treasury auctions. Wednesday’s Fed Beige Book report supported a robust outlook for the US economy and higher-for-longer interest rates, helping to underpin the US Dollar.  

Comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Seiji Adachi helped support the Yen on Wednesday, after he suggested raising interest rates to reduce imported inflation if JPY became overly weak. Adachi added the proviso, however, that excessive interest rate moves could also cause disruptions to household and corporate investment.  

Traders have increased bets that the BoJ will raise interest rates despite Japan's Weighted Median Inflation Index, a significant gauge of the country’s trend inflation, increasing by 1.1% in April, representing a slowdown from the 1.3% increase recorded in March.

Japan’s Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI) posted a year-over-year reading of 2.8% in April, surpassing expectations of 2.3% and marking its fastest rate of increase since March 2015. Investors now turn their attention to Tokyo's inflation data out on Friday, which is seen as a key indicator of nationwide price trends.

Reuters reported that Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Fed officials had not disregarded hiking interest rates. He then added that if the Fed did cut borrowing costs, it would be twice toward the end of 2024.

 

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